Variance is probably one of the most used words in poker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Run good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Run bad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cooler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Downswing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Heater.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We all understand that part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But lately I\u2019ve been thinking maybe the interesting part of variance isn\u2019t what happens to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is what we do after it happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because two people can receive almost the same luck and end up in completely different places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have a VIP friend who plays extremely big baccarat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ridiculously big.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He once told me that over his lifetime, he is actually up from baccarat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Which is quite a feat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He gets extremely favorable casino terms and rebates, so the house edge against him is very small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But of course, baccarat is still baccarat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Negative EV is negative EV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is no magical betting system that changes mathematics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But when I asked him why he thought he had managed to stay ahead for so long, he said something that really stuck with me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI\u2019m not afraid to win.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When he loses, he has control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He can stop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But when he is winning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
God.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He wins hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t get up a little and immediately start protecting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He is capable of having a monster night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Again, this is not a baccarat strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next hand doesn\u2019t know that you won the previous ten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But psychologically, I think there is something very interesting here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because a lot of people behave exactly the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When they are losing, suddenly they become brave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They chase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They play longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They increase stakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They need to get even.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But when they are winning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Suddenly they become scared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI\u2019m up enough.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI don\u2019t want to lose it back.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMaybe I should lock it up.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Think about this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some people have a stop-loss when they are winning and no stop-loss when they are losing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is a very expensive relationship with variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poker makes this even more interesting because poker is not baccarat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Your EV can actually change during the night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe you are winning purely because you ran good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That means nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But sometimes the game itself changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Someone starts tilting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stacks become deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A strong player leaves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Someone is tired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A recreational player wants to battle every hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Your image becomes incredible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You understand the table much better than you did five hours ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Suddenly your opportunity is genuinely better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And sometimes this is exactly when people become scared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They start protecting the win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They stop making the thin value bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They don\u2019t take the bluff they know is there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They avoid the big pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Without realizing it, their objective changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the start of the night:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Make the best decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After winning:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t lose what I already won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But put the same guy five buy ins down and somehow he can play until breakfast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Something is backwards there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I remember one of the big Singapore poker stables told my friend Moses that they go to the gym a lot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Partly for poker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For stamina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because they believed a lot of the real edge appears in long, deep sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I love this idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eight hours in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ten hours in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Twelve hours in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
People change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They get impatient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They calculate worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They become emotional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Their discipline disappears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And sometimes this is exactly when the game becomes the best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Imagine finally reaching the part of the night where your edge is largest\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
and you are too tired to use it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe winning hard doesn\u2019t mean gambling harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe sometimes it simply means being able to stay good for longer than everybody else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bankroll is not the only thing you need to survive variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You need energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Patience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A clear mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You need enough of yourself left when the opportunity finally appears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This brings me to something else I\u2019ve been thinking about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is a difference between receiving luck and capturing luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Imagine two poker players both get randomly invited into an incredible private game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Same invitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Same piece of luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Player one comes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Plays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Goes home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe loses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nice night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Player two understands that the invitation itself might be worth much more than tonight\u2019s P&L.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He treats the host well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He is good for the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He wins properly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He loses properly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He remembers people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He builds relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He gets invited back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then somebody at that game invites him somewhere else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That leads to another person.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Five years later, one random invitation might have changed his entire career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both players received the same luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only one managed to capture it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think life works like this all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meeting the right person can be luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What you do after meeting them is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Getting one opportunity can be luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Being prepared for it is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Getting invited once might be luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Getting invited back ten times probably isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe some people are not actually that much luckier than everybody else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe they are simply better at turning one lucky event into another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, bad variance compounds too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You lose a huge pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That part might be completely unavoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then you tilt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now you play badly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then you stay until 6am.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now you sleep badly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tomorrow your judgment is worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You snap at someone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You chase another game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You make another bad decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One unlucky river has somehow entered tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And then the day after that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is where variance becomes dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not because the river card itself was so powerful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But because you allowed one random event to start controlling non-random decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The bad card was variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next five mistakes were not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And this is probably the part I find most interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The cards reset every hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have no memory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But we don\u2019t reset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our bankroll remembers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our body remembers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our confidence remembers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our opponents remember.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our reputation remembers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The people who invited us remember.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That means the next hand might be statistically independent\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
but our life is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And maybe that is why learning to deal with variance is so much deeper than simply becoming emotionally tough enough to lose money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The real question is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What does variance turn you into?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When you lose, do you become reckless?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you become scared?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you chase?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you disappear?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When you win, do you become arrogant?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you become complacent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or do you become so afraid of losing the win that you stop taking good opportunities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Can you stop bad variance from spreading?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Can you allow good variance to compound?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Can you survive long enough for luck to eventually find you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And when it finally does\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
are you prepared enough to do something with it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maybe this is the real skill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not controlling variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We can\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not predicting variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We definitely can\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But controlling what variance is allowed to affect next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lose a hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It doesn\u2019t need to cost you the next hand too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lose a session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It doesn\u2019t need to cost you tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And when things finally line up in your favor\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
good game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clear mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Deep stacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Great opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Right people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Right moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t become afraid simply because you finally have something to lose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Protect yourself from ruin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stay in the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keep enough chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keep enough energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keep enough courage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And when the right moment comes<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Capture it. Keep your foot on the gas.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Variance is probably one of the most used words in poker. Run good. Run bad. Cooler. Downswing. Heater. We all understand that part. But lately I\u2019ve been thinking maybe the interesting part of variance isn\u2019t what happens to us. It is what we do after it happens. Because two people can receive almost the same […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3049,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"tmauthors":[53],"brand":[],"watch-function":[],"watch-type":[],"class_list":["post-3048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bangkok"],"yoast_head":"\n